Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.941485 4.291909 4.679281 5.143270 5.689414 6.318977 7.110419
2025-02-02 3.568447 4.047880 4.617330 5.358495 6.321763 7.569324 9.379316
2025-02-09 3.312407 3.859975 4.542697 5.485556 6.806901 8.690275 11.803725
2025-02-16 3.056039 3.625864 4.360189 5.417695 6.984852 9.393845 13.850276
2025-02-23 2.862525 3.445973 4.218454 5.370874 7.164217 10.119575 16.237002
2025-03-02 2.699816 3.288766 4.086077 5.311470 7.301301 10.795646 18.879411
2025-03-09 2.562919 3.153592 3.968670 5.254501 7.424275 11.469946 21.954941
2025-03-16 2.457605 3.052970 3.889666 5.243568 7.617737 12.330383 26.229815
2025-03-23 2.392267 3.002755 3.878060 5.335269 8.006238 13.724555 33.795976
2025-03-30 2.284247 2.884149 3.754223 5.226949 7.998808 14.220204 38.860778
2025-04-06 2.185829 2.773866 3.635208 5.114341 7.964299 14.643147 44.475988
2025-04-13 2.077755 2.644220 3.478608 4.923268 7.744675 14.527294 47.222121
2025-04-20 2.041009 2.619280 3.485248 5.021915 8.149449 16.300331 67.935435
2025-04-27 2.029231 2.630525 3.549219 5.229874 8.836025 19.332385 127.909891
2025-05-04 2.000289 2.613716 3.566047 5.351909 9.357854 22.244492 283.197757
2025-05-11 1.938347 2.542985 3.489334 5.286775 9.414355 23.453866 536.517618
2025-05-18 1.884480 2.482400 3.425995 5.241820 9.514851 24.956964 1845.715506
2025-05-25 1.832134 2.421992 3.359591 5.184769 9.574723 26.360343 NaN
2025-06-01 1.783535 2.365564 3.296995 5.130041 9.632538 27.848154 NaN
2025-06-08 1.745271 2.323988 3.257666 5.119536 9.812581 30.230066 NaN
2025-06-15 1.724998 2.310161 3.265428 5.207628 10.297024 35.180159 NaN
2025-06-22 1.676045 2.248407 3.186058 5.103567 10.188247 36.002930 NaN
2025-06-29 1.628909 2.188214 3.107118 4.995326 10.051938 36.561607 NaN